Posts Tagged paul hodes

New Hampshire U.S. Senate Poll

Jan 4

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Republicans leading in head to head match ups of U.S. Senate ballot.  From American Research Group.

Question wording and response:

If the 2010 election for US Senate were being held today between Kelly Ayotte, the Republican, and Paul Hodes, the Democrat, for whom would you vote – Ayotte or Hodes? (names rotated)

2010 US Senate Ayotte Hodes Undecided
All voters 43% 36% 21%
Republicans 81% 6% 13%
Democrats 13% 70% 17%
Undeclared 37% 33% 30%
9/09 41% 34% 25

If the 2010 election for US Senate were being held today between Paul Hodes, the Democrat, and Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican, for whom would you vote – Hodes or Lamontagne? (names rotated)

2010 US Senate Hodes Lamontagne Undecided
All voters 31% 37% 32%
Republicans 3% 77% 20%
Democrats 61% 13% 26%
Undeclared 30% 23% 47%

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An Early Lead for Ayotte

Sep 16

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A general election match up between former Republican A.G. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Congressman Paul Hodes has Ayotte up 46% to 38% over Hodes.  Get the full story and more in depth analysis from the Hill’s Blog Briefing Room.

Ayotte, who stepped down from her post as state attorney general in July, nabs 46 percent to Hodes’ 38 percent, according to Rasmussen’s latest election survey. Both are relatively popular within their own political parties — they both have the support of 81 percent of their respective party’s base  — but Ayotte has an advantage among voters with no party affiliation. She leads in that category by 14 points, the poll finds.

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August ‘09 U.S. Senate rankings

Aug 24

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Just the top three races below – you can see the full rundown of all 38 from FiveThirtyEight dot com yourself.

Races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing parties (by November 2010, accounting for all factors such as potential retirements, primary challenges, and so forth).

Likelihood of party switch has increased since last month’s rankings.
Likelihood of party switch has decreased since last month.

1. Missouri (R-Open)
We’re waiting to see whether Robin Carnahan’s numbers have been weakened any by the national tide having turned somewhat against the Democrats. Meanwhile, Roy Blunt had vastly improved fundraising numbers in the second quarter. Still, this is the sort of cycle that — even if it tends to work against Democrats, may also tend to favor outsider candidates, and Blunt — a seven-term Congressmen and former Majority Whip — is not exactly the freshest of faces. I’m hedging a bit by giving Missouri a down arrow but nevertheless allowing it to retain the top slot on our list for the time being. Really, you could argue for almost any ordering of the top five or so races.

2. New Hampshire (R-Open)
Kelly Ayotte, on the other hand, the Republican Attorney General of New Hampshire, is a relatively fresher face, although some New Hampshire observers I’ve spoken with wonder whether she might ultimately be too green to run a top-notch campaign. Still, another poll has come out showing Ayotte in a dead head with Democratic nominee Paul Hodes. She certainly gives the Republicans far better chances to retain Judd Gregg’s seat than a retread like Charlie Bass or John Sununu might have.

3. Connecticut (D-Dodd)
New Quinnipiac polling doesn’t show Chris Dodd’s situation improving any, but there remain a lot of contingencies in this contest: is Rob Simmons a safe bet to win the Republican primary when he’s likely to face a couple very well-financed challengers? Is Dodd himself in the clear from a primary challenge? How will Dodd’s diagnosis of prostate cancer affect the dynamics of the race? For the time being, it would be foolish to characterize this race is anything other than a toss-up.

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As Kermit Used To Say

Aug 20

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New Hampshire Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Kelly Ayotte is having to deal with inane barbs and silly comparisons from inside and outside her own party.  That must mean she’s the real deal.  According the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee’s website, they’ve issued no fewer than 5 press releases and 1 web video focused on the former attorney general.  Compare that to 3 releases and 1 video for Florida Governor (and also former attorney general) Charlie Crist, and none for current Utah A.G. Mark Shurtleff.  Guess they really do fear that Kelly Ayotte is the future U.S. Senator from New Hampshire.

All the talk and nonsense about her going to Washington, or hosting a fundraiser at the NRSC headquarters on 2nd Street is just that – process driven nonsense that has zero bearing on her skills as a candidate or a policy maker.  Why go to Washington?  Because there are some smart policy and political minds who are worth talking to there.  Why host a fundraiser at the NRSC?  Because it’s the fiscally conservative smart thing to do.  They provide a facility for candidates that cost a whole bucket load less than reserving a room at some hotel or restaurant in DC.  Call it good use of precious campaign funds.

At this point – it looks like the Ayotte narrative will be this:  She’s a sharp and tough lawyer, with a real selfless bent toward public service, connects well with voters and wants what’s best for her home state and her family.  It’s up to the DSCC, and Paul Hodes (on the Dem side), and Ovide Lamontagne – the only other Republican to take real steps to run – to provide their own Ayotte narrative in a credible and effective fashion.

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Kelly Ayotte’s First Foray

Aug 3

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Fergus Cullen at RedHampshire.com is reporting that former New Hampshire Attorney General, and now exploratory candidate for the U.S. Senate, Kelly Ayotte makes what may be her first foray into Republican grassroots politics as a politician next Tuesday.  Making her appearance in the picturesque lakes region of New Hampshire – it’ll be interesting to see how GOP activists in the state embrace her – once they get to know her.  Right now, all that’s out there on Kelly Ayotte is spin, conjecture, and caricature – and very little fact.  Here’s her first chance to get control of all of those things.

Pretty sure there will be some video cameras there to record every word she says – some blue cameras and some red cameras.

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What’s happening w/Kelly Ayotte?

Jul 20

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From the looks of the media coverage and political games over the weekend, a lot seems to be happening with likely New Hampshire Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte.

Maybe more so than some expected, it’s being reported is making lots of good moves for staffing up her likely campaign.  The Nashua Telegraph reports that she’s settled on political consultant Tom Daffron, who was Chief of Staff for both Fred Thompson (R) and Bill Cohen (D), to be her campaign’s big thinker on strategic issues.

He played high profile roles in the past Senate campaigns of both Maine GOP Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe and also was a leading director of the failed presidential run of ex-North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Meanwhile, Ayotte is shopping for a campaign manager and a lead contender is a familiar face, Rob Varsalone, who was political director for Craig Benson’s blowout gubernatorial victory in 2002 and later was a senior Benson adviser.

A New Hampshire native, Varsalone served as Afghanistan director for the International Republican Institute some years ago and led the Republican National Committee’s coordinated campaign.

The Telegraph goes on to report that Ayotte would like to bring Rob Varsalone back from the middle east to run the day to day side of her campaign operation.

All of these moves, or even a good sized endorsement from former Governor Steve Merrill, haven’t moved ‘96 GOP gov nominee Ovide Lamontagne out of the race.  In fact, Lamontagne has retained former Republican Governors Association Charlie Spies as his political consultant during the exploratory portion of his campaign.

The Ayotte staff ticket is far from full, and if she continues to make strong moves, and good political decisions, she’ll see her competition drop off even more so on the Republican side.

Of course, internal campaign operations won’t keep state and national Democrats from throwing everything they can think of at Kelly Ayotte.  Of course, as we posted last week, if this is the best the opposition research departments in New Hampshire and DC have to offer on Kelly Ayotte – this is going to be short campaign…for the Democrats.

UPDATE:  Kelly Ayotte’s exploratory campaign is now on the web.  First, there’s Kelly Ayotte 2010 dot com, then there she is on Twitter, and finally you can find her on Facebook.

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Who’s rattled again?

Jul 8

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Reading this, it looks like Democrats are the ones are now all of a sudden sweating the open New Hampshire U.S. Senate contest between Paul Hodes and Kelly Ayotte.  More coverage from Graniteprof breaking down the numbers from last weeks poll.

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NH AG Kelly Ayotte Resigning

Jul 7

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To explore running for the U.S. Senate.  Widely dreaded (if you’re a Democrat) and anticipated (if you’re a Republican).  Looks like New Hampshire Republicans are about to land a candidate w/broad crossover appeal to hold on to that Judd Gregg seat.  This is a nice follow up to our inaugural posts.

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) – New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is resigning to explore a campaign for U.S. Senate.

Ayotte submitted her letter of resignation to Gov. John Lynch, effective Friday, July 17.

In a statement Tuesday, Ayotte says many people have urged her to run. She said she made her decision after discussing the matter with her husband, Joe.

Ayotte, a Republican and the state’s first female attorney general, has served for five years under two governors.

See rest at NECN dot com.  The blogs are just getting fired up now.  Check out:

Pemi-Baker Republicans

Newschowder.com

Drew Cline’s blog at the Union Leader.

The Monday Morning Clacker had a nice take on the Hodes talking points on Ayotte…which won’t be lighting any fires anytime soon.

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The Only Thing They Have to Fear Is…

Jul 6

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New Hampshire Democrats, and to an equal or greater extent have likely started plunging the depths of New Hampshire Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte for any and all dirt they can on her, because truthfully, they look to be downright scared of the nice lady.  When Democrat Governor John Lynch’s office starts off any response about Kelly Ayotte’s running for w/saying they thought they “understood” her intention was to serve until 2013, you can sense them trying to figure the best way to smear the reputation of this 2009 “Citizen of the Year“.  Especially given that all of a sudden Governor Lynch’s poll numbers are dipping below 50% – might not be the best time to go negative on someone so apparently well regarded.

We imagine they went into overdrive when a public poll showed her leading Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes last week.  Never mind all of the buzz that’s been humming up and down the east coast since NBC’s Chuck Todd first reported the murmurs back on June 16th.

This story’s been covered all over the blogs (Huffington Post, Red State, Monday Morning Clacker, DC Vaquero, and National Journal – just to name a few) – and you know it’s been talked about non-stop at both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.  It’s hot this summer, and no doubt it’s hot in New Hampshire as the pressure builds on Kelly Ayotte and New Hampshire Democrats to see if she runs.

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