Just the top three races below – you can see the full rundown of all 38 from FiveThirtyEight dot com yourself.
Races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing parties (by November 2010, accounting for all factors such as potential retirements, primary challenges, and so forth).
Likelihood of party switch has increased since last month’s rankings.
Likelihood of party switch has decreased since last month.
1.
We’re waiting to see whether Robin Carnahan’s numbers have been weakened any by the national tide having turned somewhat against the Democrats. Meanwhile, Roy Blunt had vastly improved fundraising numbers in the second quarter. Still, this is the sort of cycle that — even if it tends to work against Democrats, may also tend to favor outsider candidates, and Blunt — a seven-term Congressmen and former Majority Whip — is not exactly the freshest of faces. I’m hedging a bit by giving Missouri a down arrow but nevertheless allowing it to retain the top slot on our list for the time being. Really, you could argue for almost any ordering of the top five or so races.2. New Hampshire (R-Open)
Kelly Ayotte, on the other hand, the Republican Attorney General of New Hampshire, is a relatively fresher face, although some New Hampshire observers I’ve spoken with wonder whether she might ultimately be too green to run a top-notch campaign. Still, another poll has come out showing Ayotte in a dead head with Democratic nominee Paul Hodes. She certainly gives the Republicans far better chances to retain Judd Gregg’s seat than a retread like Charlie Bass or John Sununu might have.3. Connecticut (D-Dodd)
New Quinnipiac polling doesn’t show Chris Dodd’s situation improving any, but there remain a lot of contingencies in this contest: is Rob Simmons a safe bet to win the Republican primary when he’s likely to face a couple very well-financed challengers? Is Dodd himself in the clear from a primary challenge? How will Dodd’s diagnosis of prostate cancer affect the dynamics of the race? For the time being, it would be foolish to characterize this race is anything other than a toss-up.